Capitalizing on Positive Black Swans

Looking back at what had happened in the past one year, I find that we cannot take what we have for granted and continue to live in blissful unawareness as many significant negative events(such as the sub-prime crisis, natural disasters such as the Myanmar typhoon Nargis, Sichuan Earthquake etc)have started to unfold as the day progresses. All the above events came out of the blue, catching us unaware, yet the damage that they caused were so severe and mind boggling that it it leaves us wondering why we did not see them coming.

Black swans, as defined in a thought-provoking book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable", are events which are highly rare, carries massive impact, and where people only seeks to find explanation for these events after the fact. Due to the existence of black swans, it urges us to stop listening to so-called "experts" whom think they know more than they do while in fact there are much more unknown unknowns not accounted for.

"Experts" continue to make more gloomy predictions of our future ie. skyrocketing oil prices, prolonged recessions, climate change, as these fall within their "sophisticated" models for forecasting. However, does anybody really know whether these "educated" guesses will actually manifest in the future? In fact, what we don't know and can't predict is even more worrying(another 9/11 perhaps?)

Of course, on the flip side of the coin, there can be positive black swans as well. Nobody would have predicted that the internet would have evolved to become so pervasive in our everyday lives or even enable stay at home entrepreneurs to build decent incomes online while in the past , you typically have to hold a real job to make money.

Therefore, there can also be opportunities for us to capitalize on positive black swans while minimizing the risk from negative ones. Here's a quick paraphrase from the book on the methods that can help us take advantage of uncertainty and benefit from them:

1) Learn to differentiate between positive contingencies and negative ones
Take up only opportunities where it is extremely beneficial for you if you don't know what is going to happen or what can happen.

2) Don't be narrow minded
Be prepared, get out of your comfort zone and gain broad exposure to ideas, people or chances. Do not look for specifics as you do not know how or when opportunity will present itself.

3) Seize any lucky breaks you might get
Don't hesistate! Take up the opportunity once you see it as they are more rare than you think and may never come again.

4) Don't take government plans for granted
Government policies may not be wrong but they tend to be over analyzed, and whats good for the general population might not be able to work for you.

5) Ignore the false prophets
"Experts" are are constrained by their own knowledge and assumptions. You will never be able to win an argument against them so it is better to ignore them.

To conclude, you are the captain of your own life and don't get caught up by the expectation of other people. Understand the high impact black swans can create, don't be caught unprepared, capitalize on the positive ones and your success is only your own to determine!

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Getting rid of clutter

Ever had problems finding stuff that you need amidst the tons and tons of items that you have amassed over the years? Are there piles and stacks of books, magazines, clothes etc just lying about everywhere in the house? Then there is definitely a something you need to start doing: unclutter and get rid of the stuff that you don't need!

“The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the necessary may speak”
- Hans Hofmann

I just spend a Saturday afternoon trying to cleanup my wardrobe and guess how much stuff I managed to throw out? Almost five big bags of old clothes(probably going to donate to the Salvation Army)that I do not wear anymore but are just sitting in the closet getting moldy and collecting dust! I realized that a majority of the space is taken up by these old clothes and probably less than 10-20% of the actual space is taken up by clothes I still put on regularly.

Why unclutter?
A cluttered home or office does adversely affect our emotions and state of mind beyond just looking messy aesthetically. When items are all over the place and disorganized, it creates a level of stress and unpleasantness that makes us tensed and is detrimental to our mental health and that of people around us. Besides, it also makes us less productive. I could put the time I waste trying to dig out the exact piece of clothing I want to wear out from the pile of clothes to better use.

How to unclutter?
Uncluttering does not just mean organizing your things properly but also means having to throw stuff that you no longer need away. Rule of thumb is that if you have not used or touched it in the last 6 months to a year, you will probably not need it in the future. By saying getting rid of stuff you don't need, it could mean throwing away stuff that are spoilt into the bin or giving away stuff that are still useful to people who need them more than you do. You could set aside three boxes: one for stuff you want to keep, one to stuff to give away, and the last one for things that are to be junked. Of course, for the items that you intend to keep, be sure that you put them back to the proper places after you have sorted them through.

Once you are done uncluttering, I'm sure that you will feel a great sense of relief and be more prepared for other challenges ahead!

Photo courtesy of SparkyLeigh

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3 compelling reasons why you should start exercising

What is more important than becoming very successful in your career, in your businesses, or even in your relationships? The answer is your physical health.

Back when I was at my previous desk bound role, the only exercise I ever get daily is simply the trips I have to make to get between my desk and the water dispenser, the restroom, or the photocopier. After a hearty lunch, I'll be stuck at the workstation again for the whole day. After a long day at work, its time for dinner and there will be more excuses not to exercise again. Of course, after weeks and months of such a routine, I simply stopped caring about exercise. No wonder I put on weight and developed a tummy! In addition to weight gain, I felt easily tired, lethargic and stressed.

Since I'm now on a monthly hiatus from work, I've decided to stop the inertia and work towards getting my fitness back again. Here's three reasons why you should exercising and take care of your health too!

1)Success without health has no meaning
Without health, no success would hold any meaning because we would be too weak and frail to enjoy the fruits of our labor. Without the vitality and energy to maintain our successes, whatever results we managed to attain will also eventually turn back to naught, wasting our past effort and time. Therefore, the maintenance of health is of extreme importance and fitness is one aspect of health that most of us often neglect due to our busy lifestyles.

2)Exercise can be free, there's no need to pay
I started on an easy regime of time divided between static exercises such as situps and pushups, lifting with dumbbells that can be done in the comfort of home and some light jogging round the neighborhood etc. There is no need to join some fancy expensive gym to get started on a fitness regime: the best things in life can be FREE too!

3)Increased vitality and energy
After a week of disciplined exercise, I feel much more revitalized, physically, mentally and emotionally and can therefore attest that exercise really does wonders to our wellbeing. All the pent up stress from work is simply be released through regular exercise. Even my sleeping pattern has changed ie. I get more restful sleep and thus able to get by with lesser sleep yet feel more energized than ever before when I wake up in the morning!

"A man too busy to take care of his health is like a mechanic too busy to take care of his tools."
- Spanish Proverb

For people like me we had given up exercise a long time ago and feel the inertia to start, one easy way is to start off simply, maybe just allocating 15-30min every other day to do easy exercises which can be done in the comfort of home. Once you are comfortable with that, you can then start extending the time and increase the difficulty of the regime and very soon, when the feeling of increased vitality from getting back your fitness kicks in, I'm sure exercise will be something you will look forward to rather than try to avoid!

Photo courtesy of ErinsWorld

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Are you being assertive enough?

I've always considered myself a passive person, one who tends to prefer to take what has been offered to me rather than express my true feelings or exert my personal rights, choosing to step down during stressful situations in order to avoid confrontations. However, I've realized that this behavior does not serve me well, as most of the time I will end up in a lose-lose situation. What drawbacks does being less assertive bring us then?

1) Decreased effectiveness
Let's say you are in a brainstorming session and everyone is throwing out ideas for a new project. You have an excellent idea but since you are facing more assertive colleagues, you keep the idea to yourself and at the end of the session, another less worthy idea compared to yours gets selected because you did voice out. The project suffers and no credit goes to you.

2) Less self confidence
You feel awkward and anxious when speaking to people because you feel that your opinion doesn't make a difference whether you say it or not hence you have less confidence about yourself

3) Low self esteem and less respect from others
When you are afraid to challenge the opinions of others or do not know how to say "No" when you are in an unfavorable situation, you tend to think lowly of yourself and other people will think you are a push over.

4) Miss out on the things you want
Worst of all, you will never be able to get the things that you hope for. It could be the salary increment, new job, the anticipated promotion, the favor from a friend etc.

In order to change from being passive to being assertive, we need to know that being assertive does not equate to being aggressive or rude. Assertiveness means allowing our true voice to be heard, be it expressing our personal opinions, feelings, thoughts, wants, needs, or requests. It can be done in a tactful manner without appearing rude or unreasonable which this post "Six Steps to Become Assertive (and Nice)" over at the Positivity Blog summarizes nicely. In my personal opinion, being successful in getting what you want is the most compelling reason that we should all be more assertive. Is there any more reasons you can add?

Photo courtesy of eronoel

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Is trading really risky?

Is the buying and selling of stocks risky? Why do we often hear of both success stories of people who have made it big in the stock market as well as people who lose all their money in their stock "investments"? Why are some people more successful than others in trading stocks? Before we start putting our money into the market, there are some important mental preparation that we need to do.

What differentiates a trader from an investor? Often, the distinction between a trader and a investor is blurred. Investors are people who buy into things for the long haul ie. years so that their investment can appreciate in value. Investors buy into companies when it worth more to them than the market prices it, and only sell when the market values them much more than it is worth to them. They do not buy just a stock but is also concerned about the company and what it represents. In contrast, traders are not bothered by what the company does. Traders buy and sell stocks based on its price: they buy and sell for the short and medium term, taking profit and cutting losses when it is due.

What kind of mindset of do people start trading stocks with? Amateur investors who are eager to get into the market to lose money because they cannot understand the above differences. They may start buying stocks intending to be an "investor" but panic when their positions start losing money and switch into "trader" mode by offloading their stocks when it is not their initial intention to. Therefore, in order to make money from stocks, one must first decide their style and stick with it.

Another common problem that leads to loses in trading is by not being able to master their emotions. We are all emotional creatures that are affected by hope, fear, greed and despair whenever we take up stock positions. These emotions can affect our decision making process adversely as they cause us to make irrational choices in our trades. We must be aware of these undue influences by our emotions and learn to tame them.

As can be seen from above, trading is not an easy game to master as it has its inherent risk. However, if we are able to start with the correct mindset and approach, such risks can be managed while reaping in rewards at the same time. I view trading as an additional source of income and life skill that I would like to master in order to bring me closer to success. We should not just work for money but also let our money work harder for us, don't you agree?

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How to create your own luck

Are you feeling down on your luck, and nothing seems to be going good for you? Are you waiting for opportunities to knock, but fortune always seem to elude you? Stop fretting on your misfortune, shake off those negative thoughts and create your own luck!

Everyday we make hundreds of decisions from the time we wake up to the time we sleep. Some decisions are made consciously while others are made subsconciously as a result of habits that we've picked up since young. From every decision we make, there is an outcome which may turn out to be negative or positive, but the important lesson to learn is not to attribute it to luck(whether good or bad).

When results turn out favorable, you may give all the credit to yourself for having make such good decisions but what happens when the outcome doesn't turn out desirable? For most people, the failure is blamed on other people or circumstances that is outside of their control. The last person they will blame is them self! The inability to take responsibility for your own action and its consequence is the most significant factor leading to failure. Don't blame it on bad luck!

"Chance favors the prepared mind"
- Louis Pasteur

Sometimes, we are envious or even jealous of the excellent results of other people. Why do some people have all the luck but not you? The fact is, people are not luckier than you, but rather more prepared than you to accept opportunities when it comes knocking. Rather than wait for fate to drop success into their hands, the so called "luckier" people pro actively seek out chances for themselves to excel in by taking action(such as taking courses to improve their skillset, network with more people, set goals and objectives etc). Therefore, by expanding their peripheral vision for opportunities, they are more than ready to catch them when they come within their sight while someone less prepared might have missed it completely.

“When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.”
- Helen Keller

We begin each day with the the opportunity to make many decisions. When something bad happens, you can choose to be a victim or learn from the mistakes. Are you busier finding fault or improving your chances for finding the right opportunities? I've just closed two doors and a few new ones have opened for me and I'm going to walk through them. Are you still looking at the closed door? We find our own luck!

Photo courtesy of cloud_nine

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